April 4, 2025
Market Barometer Report
This Market Barometer report is available to paid subscribers of Paperdolls.Today as a courtesy from MarketBarometer.fyi. This information should only be used as part of an active trading strategy. Experienced and educated traders can benefit from this information. Do not execute trades merely based on this report or these colors. Please read Market Barometer’s Terms of Use and Disclaimer.
Red Today.
Projected change— We are on our 9th day of Reds.
(Highly probability of change is 1 day past due. We are officially on Day 9 of Reds.)
Video is courtesy of Pexels.com
April Note: Please remember, I have only been an active trader for about a decade. But, I have questions. Many questions about this huge drop in the price of the market this week. My teacher told me about what happened to the Stock Market on 9-11. It was a stunning drop. According to Investopedia, the S&P 500 Index plunged 11.6%.1
At the time, my teacher had a couple of trades hedged to the South. He made a lot of money. He also said there were rumors that Bin Laden moved money around and made a fortune before our tragic day. I don’t know if those rumors are true, but I do know that anyone who was hedging their bets to the South, made money.
If anyone was short in the market at the time—they could have made billions.
Remember, in the market almost every time someone loses money, another party makes money. Trades are two sided, with two parties. A buyer and a seller. If someone was shorting the market based on this Tariff announcement—oh goodness—I can’t image the potential fortune.
-17.64 % Decrease Since the all time high of February 21, 2025
(remember after 9-11 the S&P 500 plunged -11.6%)
Here’s a screen shot from my charts today. The time frame is the 90 Day 2 Hour:
I noted Inagurarion Day, when the price of the S&P 500 was 602.98.
The Market had a slight incline and topped out about a month later, on February 21, 2025—at 613.23.
Today, at the close, the S&P 500 was 505.06.
That’s a -17.64% decrease. That’s worse than the attacks on 9-11. Only we weren’t attacked.
The deal with shorting is that one must have enough money in reserve. It’s called the BP (Buying power) effect. But, if one has enough funds in their account, they can short2 sale all day long. Please know, one can short sell on the entire S&P 500 .
If I had enough money, I would have shorted the S&P 500 this week. On Wednesday, I wrote how suspicious the numbers (our scoring seemed). If I were a billionaire, it would be a very good time to short the entire S&P 500. Just saying….
Hence, I have questions. So many questions.
With all that said, I don’t have enough money to short. And, as Investopida stated after the 9-11 attacks:
The Market and Economy in the Past 22 Years
Over the long term, the U.S. stock market and economy have enjoyed strong growth despite the negative short-term impact of the attack. In the 22 years since Sept. 11, the S&P 500 index has risen nearly four-fold despite periods of steep declines, including the 2007-2008 financial crisis.3 (emphasis added)
So we are probably okay. The market is resilient, our economy is robust. But, this isn’t making sense to me. Again, I’m not a professional trader. But, I know enough to have questions. And, I am wondering who is on the other side of these losing trades. What about short selling? Will we ever know if someone with billions of dollars shorted the market earlier this week?
I have so many questions, that I asked for permission to open this one post to everyone. the MarketBarometer.fyi people agreed, especially since there is no mystery that today was indeed, a red day.
With all that said, we are only one day overdue for the greens to show up. I’m not sure if the recovery from this will take longer, like I mentioned above, I wasn’t actively trading during 9-11.
Have a great weekend everyone. And, always remember, even during hard times or seemingly daunting challenges: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”